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According to Smith Travel Research, the outlook for 2010 looks slightly better than 2009, but the industry still is expected to end the year with decreases in all three key metrics:

  • Occupancy is projected to drop 0.6 percent to 55.1 percent,
  • ADR is forecasted to decline 3.4 percent to US$93.16, and
  • RevPAR is expected fall 4.0 percent to US$51.29.

Supply and demand are both projected to end 2010 with positive growth. Supply is predicted to be up 1.8 percent and demand is expected to increase 1.3 percent.

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PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) LLP updated US lodging forecast reflects improved economic conditions and a resumption of economic growth in the second half of 2009. While occupancy levels and average daily rates (ADR) in the second half of 2009 are expected to remain below year ago levels, resulting in a 16.1 percent decrease in room revenue per available room (RevPAR) in 2009, PricewaterhouseCoopers expects that average daily rates (ADR) will continue to decline in 2010. This rate weakness is expected to be off-set by a 1.1 percent increase in occupancy, resulting in stable RevPAR levels in 2010.

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U.S. Travel Outlook

U.S. Travel Outlook is a must-read monthly newsletter from Dr. Suzanne Cook, U.S. Travel's Senior Vice President of Research. It examines current industry trends and forecasts and includes the U.S. Travel Dashboard.

http://www.tia.org/pressmedia/Newsletters/Outlook.html

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PricewaterhouseCoopers US Lodging Forecast - 2009 and 2010





                     2000   2001  2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008    2009   2010



  Occupancy

                    63.3% 59.8% 59.1% 59.2% 61.4% 63.1% 63.3% 63.1% 60.4%  55.5% 56.1%



  ADR Growth

                     5.4% -1.4% -1.5%  0.2%  4.2%  5.5%  7.5%  6.2%  2.5%  -8.7% -1.1%



  RevPAR Growth

                     6.1% -7.0% -2.7%  0.5%  7.9%  8.5%  7.8%  5.8% -1.8% -16.1% -0.1%



  Sources: Smith Travel Research and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP